Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska appears to be the winner in the Alaska Senate race. According to results on the State of Alaska Division of Elections website, Murkowski has a commanding 41 percent lead over the official Republican candidate Joe Miller at 34 percent and democratic candidate Scott McAdams with 24 percent of the vote.

If Murkowski wins she will become the first successful write-in candidate elected to the Senate since 1954 when Strom Thurmond of South Carolina was voted in.

It could also be viewed as an embarrassment for the former Gov. Sarah Palin, who endorsed Miller, a Tea Party favorite. Either way the final results go, the next Alaska State Senator will be a Republican and a lost seat in the Senate for the Democrats.

Murkowski stopped short of declaring a victory, as 30,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted.

The Miller campaign said it remains “optimistic” for a victory because past write-in campaigns in Alaska have seen as many as 6 percent of the ballots rejected as invalid.

Normally the state would wait until Nov. 18 to verify write-ins, that is the official deadline for absentee ballots to be in. But the state announced it would begin counting absentee ballots Tuesday and write ins on Wednesday.

It is expected to take three days to verify write-ins and election officials have not said how they will determine a valid write-in beyond determining “voter intent,” leaving open possibilities for legal challenges over things like the spelling of Murkowski’s name.

Both candidates have been assembling legal teams in the event that the election results are challenged, which does seem likely if the results are close.

Both campaigns are eagerly awaiting the final ballot count, but it appears Murkowski will be the winner. For Miller to pull ahead and win he would need a large percentage of write-in votes to be disqualified or prove they were not cast for Murkowski, which would be difficult considering there is no other prominent write-in candidate.